Was the future of China-Taiwan Relations? Former Singaporean Minister of Foreign Affairs George Yeo on Kuomintang Leader Cheng and China’s President Xi Meeting

A new leader of the Kuomintang (KMT) party in Taiwan, Ms. Cheng Li-wun, conducted a visit to mainland China from April 7-12. There, she paid homage to the legacy of her party founder, Sun Yat-sen, in Nanjing and had a meeting with Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the President of the People’s Republic of China. That encounter raised many questions about the future of China-Taiwan relations. We provide you with a commentary by George Yeo, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Singapore and a newly appointed member of our CAPS Advisory Board. The interview was led by Jan Zahradil, the Chairman of the Advisory Board.

In a breakthrough event, somehow overshadowed by the Iranian crisis, KMT leader Cheng visited mainland China and met with President Xi. Is this a signal of a shift in internal Taiwanese debate on how to manage relations with China?

KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun has been very clear in her position of One China. Her historical perspective leads without ambiguity to the eventual peaceful reunification of China. Many people thought her unwise to be so definitive, saying that she would lose votes in Taiwan. I am not sure. It is better for the people of Taiwan to address this question head-on and ask themselves how they see Cross-Strait relations, say, in 10-20 years.

The international situation is sobering. Taiwanese who thought that, with American support, they could continue nursing hopes of independence must now know that the US will calculate in its own self-interest. Taiwan also does not have the position of Israel in US domestic politics. Ultimately, it comes down to whether Taiwanese people are prepared to fight and die for an independent Taiwan. I doubt more than a small minority would. The wealthy have already made their own arrangements.

The timing of the visit was very accurate, as we expect a high-level meeting between Trump and Xi in May. Seems that KMT is better positioned to take advantage by appropriate action (following also changing US position on the issue), while DPP is still lagging behind, driven by already outdated strategic ideas on Indo-Pacific. What might be the consequences of this rift?

The timing of Cheng’s visit was not tied to the Trump-Xi visit. It was on the cards. Previous KMT leaders have met Xi before on the basis of the 1992 Consensus.

To maintain its own base of support, the DPP has to become lighter green, meaning to mark out more room for negotiations with the Mainland. Taking a hardline position on Cross Straits relations will not win the DPP widespread support among the people of Taiwan, not even among the young.

The US under Trump is anxious to have better relations with China. Without stable relations, the US economy will be negatively affected and the chances of the Republicans retaining control of both houses at the mid-term elections in November will be reduced.

Bringing peace to Europe and the Middle East will also be more difficult without China’s support.

China has also played the rare earths card to which the US has no good response. This card also limits the quality of weaponry the US can supply to Taiwan because the companies supplying weapons to Taiwan are under Chinese sanctions.

The US can’t win a war over Taiwan. If the US can’t subdue Iran, how can it subdue China? Furthermore, the US is entirely dependent on Taiwan for the supply of AI chips, which is a greater chokehold than the Straits of Hormuz. Therefore, it is unthinkable for the US to provoke a war on Taiwan.

In the EU, we’ve often had ambivalent positions on China-Taiwan relations, with some member states more “hawkish”, some others more pragmatic. How should the EU and its institutions reflect this new development?

European countries that are hawkish on Taiwan have absolutely no influence on the outcome of Cross-Strait relations. Among those who express such views whom I’ve met, their knowledge of Taiwan society and Cross Straits relations is not deep. Some may do so to please the U.S., but the US itself needs stable Cross Straits relations. For these countries, there is also an economic cost to having bad relations with China. I believe these countries will sooner or later shift their stance.